Amazon's Q3 Sales Could Be 'Muted' Amid Stronger Q2, Q4: EMarketer

With Prime Day pushed into Q4, Amazon’s Q3 performance is likely to be strong but “muted” after a "sensational" Q2, emailed eMarketer analyst Andrew Lipsman Friday. The analytics firm expects a “historically great” holiday quarter for Amazon, with the added bump of the 48-hour sales event in October. It predicts Amazon’s 2020 e-commerce revenue will soar 37% vs. 2019 to $476 billion, for 12.2% of the global e-commerce market, with Marketplace accounting for 60.1% of e-commerce and direct sales for 39.9%. Cowen said Amazon has become an “essential piece of the shopping experience” for millennials and Generation Z consumers from initial search to product research to purchase when shopping online and in store: “The reliance on Amazon by these consumers is crucial as they enter their prime spending years and should act as a tailwind for Amazon expanding its portion of US wallet share in the coming years,” analyst John Blackledge wrote investors Friday. On major store closings, the Q1 COVID-19 shutdown was the “last straw” for many traditional retailers already dealing with rising e-commerce competition, Cowen said, due to stagnant brick-and-mortar sales and heavy debt. It expects 2020 store closings to pass 10,000. E-commerce penetration for clothing purchases will reach 42%, it estimated, vs. media (77%), office supplies (61%) and electronics (61%).