Biden Would Likely Continue Chinese Trade Restrictions but Reverse Iran Policy, Lawyer Says

If elected, Joe Biden will likely continue the U.S.’s strict export control and sanctions policy against China, Venezuela and Russia but may reverse U.S. sanctions against Iran, said Johann Strauss, a trade lawyer with Akin Gump. Biden would also approach trade restrictions more multilaterally as opposed to Trump’s tendency to pursue unilateral restrictions, Strauss said.

Although Biden may make some changes, industry should not expect a significant shift to the U.S.’s approach toward China, Strauss said, partly because of the broad, bipartisan anti-China consensus within Congress. “Because it resonates so well, we think that Biden is likely to continue this approach, albeit more measured,” Strauss said during an Oct. 15 webinar hosted by Akin Gump. “We don't expect there to be a reset and return to how things used to be under Obama.”

In fact, Biden could be tougher than Trump on Chinese human rights violations, particularly involving China’s mass detainment and surveillance of Muslim minorities (see 2007090024), Strauss said. Trump was criticized by Democrats for not acting quicker on Chinese human rights abuses after he said in June that he held off on sanctions to secure the phase one trade deal (see 2006220023). “You can expect that under a Biden administration there's going to be a lot of focus not just … to make sure that things like civil-military fusion is a top concern, but also what's going on with the Uighurs,” Strauss said. “These factors combined are most likely a signal that we're going to see a continuation of the political direction that we have on China.”

However, Biden will likely reverse the U.S.’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran to try to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development. Although a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is unlikely, Biden could lift some sanctions and try to arrange a new deal, Strauss said. “We don't expect a Biden administration to simply dust off the JCPOA … but we do think there may be a trend towards reversing and entering into negotiations and possibly repairing what has been done to the JCPOA,” he said. “It's going to be more measured. It's not going to be the maximum pressure, everything-on-the-table approach.”

Other regimes will likely remain unchanged, such as sanctions against Venezuela and restrictions against Russia for election interference and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Strauss said, which is largely being led by Congress (see 2008110016). Regardless of what changes come, a Biden administration will likely be more predictable. “President Trump likes to take bold policy actions,” Strauss said. “We're likely to see more measured policy actions under Biden.”