Trade Expert Fears Trump Reelection ‘Mandate’ to End Tariff Exclusions for Good

A “key thing” about the Trade Act Section 301 tariff exclusions on Chinese goods that have been granted or extended is that most are set to expire Dec. 31, Nicole Bivens Collinson, president-international trade and government relations with Sandler Travis, said during a Sports & Fitness Industry Association webinar July 23. If President Donald Trump is reelected, she believes, his administration “will view that as a mandate” for eradicating tariff exclusions permanently, she said.

As an importer, “I would be looking at January as having tariffs in place without any exclusions,” she said. If U.S.-China relations further deteriorate, Collinson said, she fears the List 4A tariffs currently at 7.5% will increase to 25%. “We also have a List 4B that has no tariffs on them right now. That could change as well. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative didn’t comment.

It’s difficult to judge the likelihood of success of House legislation that would direct the USTR to extend Section 301 tariffs exclusions automatically for at least a year (see 2007220058), she said. Collinson isn’t sure if the bill “has legs or not,” she said. “That it is bipartisan is helpful.” She thinks the legislation could clear the House, “but I don’t know that the Senate would be willing to bring it up,” because Senate Republicans would view it as “usurping” President Donald Trump’s tariff “authority,” she said. It’s also highly unlikely Trump would sign it into law, she said.