Box Office Receipts to Fall 48% This Year as Some Titles Directly Stream: Analyst

Most studios probably won't release new content until all theaters have reopened, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote investors Tuesday, predicting a 48% box office drop in North America this year to $5.9 billion. Citing a "fluid" situation, Pachter said it's unclear how quarantines and stay-at-home orders will affect consumer behavior long term: "People may be eager to visit the theatres once they feel safe doing so, but it is unlikely crowds will return to any semblance of normal before a vaccine is widely distributed." Theaters and studios have some incentive to release new content before a "return to normal," as a cinema could show one film on all screens to allow for social distancing, Pachter said. Streaming services will compete to bolster their offerings in an “extremely competitive environment," facing a dearth of content later this year after the halt of productions due to stay-at-home orders. Studios "have an opportunity to release films straight to streaming for a premium rental fee," he said. Some 68 films have been moved or pulled from the release slate, worth an estimated $7.5 billion; seven of those shifted to a streaming platform, worth an estimated $358 million at the box office. Pachter predicts 15 that haven’t been rescheduled -- worth $652 million at the box office -- will be moved to streaming platforms. At home, some 53% of adults ages 18 and above in U.S. TV households are spending more time watching TV per day since the COVID-19 pandemic, reported Leichtman Research Group Tuesday. Sixty-two percent of pay-TV premium subscribers, 62% of pay-TV DVR subs, and 59% of pay-TV on-demand users spend more time watching TV per day, it said, and 43% of connected TV users use their sets more often. Satisfaction levels were lower: 39% were more satisfied with their streaming video services, a third were more satisfied with their pay-TV service and 36% were more satisfied with their home internet service during the period.