BIA Reduces Q2 Broadcast, Digital TV Ad Forecast by $1 Billion, Citing Virus

BIA Advisory Services reduced its Q2 forecast for local TV advertising by about $1 billion because of COVID-19, said a news release Thursday. The new revenue estimate is $18.5 billion -- $17 billion for over-the-air and $1.5 billion for digital -- down from the $19.4 billion BIA forecast earlier in 2020. “Overall, the numbers still reflect the election year and a slight increase over 2019,” the researcher said. TV stations will have ad decreases from many businesses, but some of those losses will be offset by jumps in political commercials in battleground states, said Chief Economist Mark Fratrik. Local political ad spending will be $7.1 billion through Q4. OTA will get 45.8% of political ad spending. Continued growth in over the top and digital “will help to soften the impact of the pandemic on advertising revenue,” Fratrik said. Retransmissions will generate $10.4 billion of station revenue in 2020, BIA said: “On a market-by-market basis, retransmission fees will continue to rise.”