FCC Seen Unlikely to Ask Edge Providers to Throttle Bit Rates in COVID-19 Crisis

The FCC has been pleased to see industry take-up of its "keep Americans connected" pledge and its push to expand low-income offerings, and doesn't anticipate asking edge providers to throttle their streaming video quality to ensure adequate data network capacity, said Evan Swarztrauber, an aide to Chairman Ajit Pai, in a Recon Analytics web conference Tuesday. The European Union asked streaming services like Netflix and YouTube to reduce their data traffic. Deploying 5G could face some COVID-19 headwinds due to the workforce issues getting antennas installed, Techsponential President Avi Greengart said.

U.S. data networks "seem to be holding up really well" under heavier pandemic-related traffic, Swarztrauber said. He said the agency has been monitoring network performance and discussing strained areas with providers. He said some indicated the added data demands aren't as big a strain as other events like the Super Bowl. Urging lower bit rates of edge providers doesn't seem necessary, but the FCC encouraged broadband providers to prioritize connectivity needs of students and hospitals, he said.

The T-Mobile/Sprint transaction will mean wireless consumer offerings "will be a little bit less sweet" but could lead to more head-to-head broadband competition between cable and wireless, said wireless analyst Jeff Moore of Wave7 Research. He and telecom analyst Roger Entner of Recon Analytics said Dish Network, to survive as a wireless operator, must build a sizable retail presence. Moore said Dish should ape Sprint's retail presence in thousands of stores and in big box national retailers, plus take advantage of Sprint personnel and leases. Analysts said multiple wireless operators are retreating from earlier plans to make 5G a premium offering.

Smartphone analyst Greengart said handset demand is down during the pandemic but so too is supply due to big parts of China having been shut down by COVID-19. He said some manufacturing sites are coming back online, but this fall's expected rollout of the latest iPhone might be delayed.

Multiple analysts said wireless churn might be down sizably for the foreseeable future. More than half of postpaid wireless stores have closed due to the pandemic, and those remaining open have had hours shortened, Moore said. He said prepaid wireless stores remain largely open though hours have been shortened. Greengart said people already on a postpaid wireless plan aren't likely to change, either because they can't currently or because it's suddenly a lesser priority. He said Sprint has moved up its schedule for launching some aggressively priced subscriber plans, but they might not make as much an impact as they would have before the pandemic. Entner said cable could have some fringe benefit because a lot of its wireless sales are done online or are telesales, while traditional wireless carriers do a lot of their sales via retail locations.