2020 Will Be 'Record Year' for US Ag Exports, USDA Secretary Says

The upcoming year will produce “record” results for U.S. agricultural exports as agreements with Japan and China take effect and as the U.S. Department of Agriculture aims to increase U.S. exports to countries “around the world,” Secretary Sonny Perdue said. Speaking during a Jan. 20 event hosted by the American Farm Bureau, Perdue said agriculture exports will significantly increase in 2020, particularly due to the phase one agreement with China (see 2001150073). “If you made 200 bushels this year, think about making 400 next year,” Perdue said. “We’re talking about doubling the number of [agricultural imports] that China has ever done throughout the whole agricultural sector.”

Perdue also said the third tranche of a $16 billion aid package announced in May for farmers and exporters (see 1907220007) is coming “soon,” but said there likely will not be another aid package in 2020. The administration expects increased trade opportunities to eliminate the need for another package, Perdue said. “I hope the safety net has helped. Obviously it's been painful,” he said. “But I'm a farmer and an optimist, and I believe 2020 is going to be better.”

Perdue said the China deal “is the first deal I've ever seen with real teeth of enforceability” and will effectively address China’s non-tariff barriers on a range of agricultural products as well as forced technology transfers and intellectual property rights. Perdue said the last week, in which the China deal was signed and the Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (see 2001160035), was the result of “really two years of work,” which included “a lot of financial anxiety.”

Perdue acknowledged that exporters still feel anxiety as both the U.S. and China still have to reach a phase two agreement, but dismissed critics who say the deal won’t prove successful. “There were a lot of naysayers about this. There still are,” he said. “They say ‘where's the proof in this?’ We’re going to see the proof. Obviously it's going to be when the orders come in.” Perdue said China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural goods will be “amazing.”

Perdue also said the USDA has a “tracking mechanism” to track China’s purchases. “We’ll show the president how China is doing on a weekly, monthly basis to meet those goals,” he said.

He also said the U.S.-Japan deal (see 1912050058) is a “better deal” than the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the USMCA will prove to be a “huge success” for U.S. exporters. “Many doubted, and I know there was a great gasp when the president talked about withdrawing from [the North American Free Trade Agreement],” Perdue said. “It's a better deal than what we've had before.”

The USDA is also working to further “diversify our trade portfolio” in 2020, Perdue said, specifically in the Philippines, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Peru and the United Arab Emirates. He said 2020 “will be a record year for agricultural exports … new trade deals and strong consumer demand in the United States and abroad are great signs of brighter days ahead.”