Trump Threatens Iraq Sanctions; Iran Further Breaches JCPOA

President Donald Trump threatened sanctions against Iraq following a Jan. 5 vote by the country's parliament to expel U.S. troops. The threat comes amid growing tension in the Middle East as Iran further decommitted from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and Europe scrambled to keep the deal from disintegrating, which could trigger European snapback sanctions against Iran.

Speaking to reporters from Air Force One Jan. 5, Trump said the U.S. won’t exit on a “very friendly basis” if Iraq asks U.S. troops to leave. “If there’s any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq,” Trump said. He added: “We will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever. It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.” The U.S. has employed a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran under Trump, which has included continuous sanctions since Trump became president and has been at times marred by an unclear strategy, according to sanctions experts (see 1908010020).

Although trade experts have argued the sanctions have not accomplished U.S. foreign policy goals, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the campaign is working, during NBC's “Meet the Press” on Jan. 5. Pompeo said sanctions have succeeded in “draining” Iran’s resources, and pointed to U.S. sanctions against Mahan Airlines (see 1912050032), a private Iranian airline, as a success story. “We’ve gotten multiple countries now to sanction Mahan Air,” he said. “It’s taken a little bit of time and it will continue to take time, but we are going to restore deterrence. We just had a big hill to climb up.”

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Jan. 6 the country is opposed to U.S. sanctions against Iraq, saying “countries need to observe … the basic norms governing international relations,” and advocated for reduced tensions. “We oppose the arbitrary use or threat of sanction, not to mention the imposition of unilateral sanctions,” the spokesman said.

As Trump threatened sanctions against Iraq, Iran took its final step to decommit from its obligations under the JCPOA, Iranian foreign minister and spokesman Javad Zarif said in a Jan. 5 tweet, saying Iran will no longer abide by nuclear restrictions. But Zarif said the steps are “reversible” and Iran will continue to operate with oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The move was the latest in a series of decommitments made by Iran over the last year (see 1907080019) after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the nuclear deal in 2018.

In a Jan. 6 joint statement, France, Germany and Britain condemned the move and urged Iran to “return in full compliance” with its commitments under the JCPOA, according to an unofficial translation. While the three countries did not threaten sanctions against Iran, instead saying they “are ready to continue the dialogue with all stakeholders in order to contribute to the easing of tensions and the restoration of stability in the region,” European sanctions may be reimposed. Further JCPOA decommitments could trigger snapback sanctions, which would reimpose all EU sanctions on Iran that were in place before the JCPOA (see 1907030048).