Regulatory Regimes, Orbital Debris Concern Industry, Officials Including Pai

On the cusp of an expected boom, commercial space sector worries range from a space business "bubble" to outdated rules regimes that require replacing and the need to show investors regulatory burdens are waning, said corporate and government space executives Tuesday at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event. FCC Chairman Ajit Pai said the agency is committed to matching the tempo of the commercial satellite industry and avoiding a "Byzantine approval system" that could be a regulatory bottleneck. He remains concerned about prospects for orbital debris. His prepared remarks were later posted.

Pai recapped steps the agency took in recent months, including streamlining small satellite licensing (see 1908010011) and approving low earth orbit (LEO) applications. He said the 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference had some satellite wins, including allocating spectrum for fixed satellite service in 51.4-52.4 GHz and additional bands for earth stations in motion.

Asked about dynamic sharing of spectrum for LEO, Pai stopped short of endorsing it but said the sharing model the agency is trying with the citizens broadband radio service has been "very productive." He said the FCC is "actively engaged" in its orbital debris NPRM and it "continue[s] to consult with ... federal partners." The Commerce Department urged pausing the proceeding (see 1904080033).

A cadence of weekly space launches will almost be a necessity given the plethora of planned LEO mega constellations, said OneWeb North America Regulatory Affairs Head Eric Graham. Rocket Lab Senior Vice President-Global Launch Services Lars Hoffman said the company is on a path to have launches weekly, since commercial and government demand is rising steadily. He said launch industry demand mirrors early aircraft industry growth. HawkEye 360’s bottleneck isn't launch-related but “paltry” U.S. manufacturing capabilities for microsatellites, said CEO John Serafini, seeking policies encouraging such domestic manufacturing.

As the launch industry gets more efficient and launches become cheaper, it remains to be seen if launch demand takes off, said Jim Chilton, Boeing senior vice president-space and launch. Launch capabilities are “something nation-states won’t give up,” and a finite number of operators can survive in that market, he said. Also still to be seen is how the satellite industry survives a shift from broadcast to network provision, he said. That will mean satellite operators competing more with terrestrial services, which will be a challenge, he said.

Serafini said venture capital isn't adverse to startups operating in regulatory uncertainty, because that is where there's less competition. Attracting increased investment means showing the regulatory risk is declining commensurately, he said. He said commercial space operators should pay more attention to cybersecurity and possible threats. FAA Commercial Space Transportation Associate Administrator Wayne Monteith said "we are living in Buck Rogers time," but the space regulatory environment is potentially hobbled by the Administrative Procedure Act, which can slow the rate of regulatory change.

The Commerce Department had 25 staffers in 2012 to handle a single license and now is down to fewer than three, with the agency needing more resources and more efficiency, said Monteith. As space traffic management responsibility moves from DOD to Commerce, the focus must be on safety, he said. There are some industry worries Earth's at the beginning of the Keppler Syndrome, with the number of objects in orbit reaching a density with a ripple effect of collisions causing debris that leads to more collisions and more debris, he said. Chilton said a plethora of small satellite-launch companies are trying to get to market, and all are probably technically capable, so sustainability will depend on their business models.

OneWeb's Graham pointed to the need for international cooperation on handling orbital debris issues, with companies concerned about following any particular nation's regulatory lead when it could turn out to be an outlier. He said OneWeb is focused on active debris removal, or making satellites capable of retrieval if something goes wrong, though the technology hasn't been fully developed.

The FAA is reworking its launch and re-entry licensing, with new rules to be published in fall 2020, and trying to more efficiently integrate real-time space launch data with aviation operations in the national airspace system, Administrator Steve Dickson said. He said the goal is a regime of performance-based launch regulations that parallel commercial aviation's rules, including such features as crew certifications. FAA issued 35 launch and re-entry licenses last year, is on track for similar this year, and expects that to ramp up to almost one weekly in 2020, Dickson said. Beyond the 11 licensed spaceports in eight states around the U.S. there are "a handful more in the pipeline," he said.

The U.S. faces hypersonic weapon threats from Russia and China and needs a resilient LEO communications network, said Pentagon Undersecretary-Research and Engineering Mike Griffin. He cited "a crying need" for modernizing development and deployment of space assets, using either commercial satcom options for obtaining global, low-latency surveillance or commercial methods for making necessary tech. That could involve commercial sector contractors building to DOD Space Development Agency requirements, the official said. He said surveillance theoretically could be done from high orbit, but that leads to latency issues, he said.