IDC Calls 5G ‘Ray of Hope,’ Not ‘Savior,’ for Troubled Smartphone Business

Global smartphone shipment growth will be “nearly flat” in 2019's second half compared with a year earlier, while the market declines 2.2 percent for full year, said IDC Monday. That would make 2019 the third straight year of “global contraction,” though IDC expects shipment growth to recover in 2020, rising 1.6 percent. "The global smartphone market and relevant supply chains remain uncertain, largely due to fluctuations in U.S-China trade negotiations, making future planning even more challenging than normal," said the researcher. Consumers continue holding on to their devices longer making upgrade and replacement sales “difficult for the vendors and channels alike,” it said. “Expectations of aggressive promotions and offers in the second half of 2019 aimed at helping to clear out any channel inventory and get consumers excited about the next wave of smartphone technology should steer the market back toward renewed growth." IDC sees 5G as “a ray of hope” for the smartphone business: Though 2019 is “very much an introductory year at best,” 2020 looks to be the year in which “5G begins to ramp up.” It estimates 5G models will be 8.9 percent of smartphones shipped globally in 2020, growing to 28.1 percent share by 2023. "We don't think 5G will be the savior in smartphones, but we do see it as a critical evolution in mobile technology,” said IDC. “We expect the 5G ramp on smartphones to be more subtle than what we saw with 4G.”