AEI Expert Says Tech Supply Chain Restrictions, Not Tariffs, Are Future

Regardless of who wins the 2020 presidential election, tech companies likely will have to change their supply chains and reverse the international approach to research and development, said Derek Scissors, an American Enterprise Institute China scholar. Apparel and other low-value goods manufacturers were already moving to cheaper countries in Asia, but consumer technology firms were happy in China before the trade war began, said Scissors in an interview. "You could easily get a Democratic administration that wants to get tech out of China." Joe "Biden's people say they want that," Scissors said. He said the next Democratic administration won't use broad-based tariffs, as President Donald Trump has. Scissors said the U.S. dominates in advanced microchip design, and policymakers should intervene to stop industrial espionage in that field. But he said for chipmakers, restrictions on cooperating with Chinese researchers also will likely mean fewer sales in China. "If you say to Intel: you cannot do any research and development with China, the Chinese are going to find Intel a lot less interesting." Scissors said if decoupling happens, which he hopes will, the most advanced chips would likely be assembled in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and maybe the Philippines. "The thing about China -- it's the end of a supply chain with tons of inputs where you make hundreds of billions of low-end consumer electronics every year," he said. "There's no other country that can replace that." Scissors said that scale might be found in Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam or perhaps India.