Leaked UK Memo Predicts Significant Cargo Slowdowns Months After No-Deal Brexit

Border clearance for trucks crossing the Straits of Dover from the United Kingdom to France may slow to 40 percent to 60 percent of the current flow within one day of a no-deal Brexit, according to a leaked U.K. government memo published by The Times of London on Aug. 18. And “significant disruption” at the French border may last up to six months after the U.K. leaves the EU with no transition deal, the report said.

The memo, which the Times says was compiled by the U.K. Cabinet Office in early August under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, details “the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than worst-case scenarios.” It says 50 percent to 85 percent of “heavy goods vehicles” traveling via the “short straits” may not be ready for new EU mandatory customs controls imposed by France on the first day after Brexit.

The worst disruptions may last for three months before flow rates rise to about 50 percent to 70 percent of previous levels as more traders get prepared, “although disruption could continue much longer,” the report says. Long lines could form in Kent, meaning trucks could see waits of a day and a half to two and a half days before being able to cross the border. In the event of serious disruption, the French “might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings,” but some logistics companies may decide to avoid the route as their trucks will find it difficult to return to the EU to collect another load, the report said, as detailed by the Times.

The disruptions would cause an outsize impact on supply chains for medicines and medicinal products, which “rely heavily on the short straits,” the report said. Three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits, and strict requirements on transportation can include limits on transit times and temperature controls.

Overall, readiness for Brexit is low and will likely be lower once the Oct. 31 deadline comes around, the report said. The lack of clarity on what form Brexit will take -- a no-deal Brexit, a transition deal or a customs union -- means there’s nothing concrete for businesses to prepare for, the report said. Large businesses will likely be more ready than small- and medium-sized businesses. “Readiness will be further limited by increasing EU Exit fatigue caused by the second extension of article 50,” the report said, according to the Times.

While the U.K. will implement a policy of “no new checks with limited exceptions” on the Ireland-Northern Ireland border on day one, that is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks, the report said. The automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland “will severely disrupt trade.” Given these tariffs and non-tariff barriers, “there will be pressure to agree new arrangements to supersede the Day 1 model within days or weeks,” the report said.