Report: Most Apparel Will Be Hit With Tariff Sept. 1, but Peak Import Month Is August

The American Apparel and Footwear Association complained about the tenor of news coverage about Section 301 tariff delays, noting that 77 percent of apparel and textiles will face an additional 10 percent tariff on Sept. 1, not the later December date.

Chad Bown, an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, blogged this week that between earlier rounds and this one, 87 percent of apparel and textiles would face Section 301 tariffs by Sept. 1, given the apparel goods in earlier rounds.

At the beginning of September, 52 percent of footwear will face Section 301 tariffs, and 45 percent of those imports are in the new round.

“By no means is this a win or a de-escalation,” said Rick Helfenbein, CEO of the AAFA. "Contrary to the headlines, the Grinch has stolen the Christmas selling season for our industry."

Bown said it's a little more complicated than that. Apparel and footwear is imported earlier than consumer electronics, which largely will be spared until December. Apparel imports climb from March through the summer, with August as the peak month for the items that will be hit Sept. 1, his analysis found. However, according to historical patterns, import volumes continue to be high in September and October for the apparel and footwear items on the list.

Consumer electronics have much sharper peaks and valleys, with volumes rising sharply from August to October last year.

Apparel and footwear were treated differently because of the dominance of China in producing shoes, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. With clothing, China accounts for a minority of imports, but for shoes, according to the International Trade Commission, China is sending about 62 percent of the total shoe imports.

Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America CEO Matt Priest said: "Our industry’s loud unified voice left a clear impression that shoe tariffs are already extremely high, upwards of 67.5%, and any further tariffs would directly raise costs on consumers and cost footwear jobs. While we are pleased with the decision to delay new tariffs on certain shoes, we are not satisfied."

Bown wrote, "There is no good news in these tariff announcements. The only minor consolation comes in their timing." He said the timing will mean that back-to-school and Christmas goods will already be in port before the tariffs go on.

By Dec. 15, he noted, 96.8 percent of imports from China will have higher tariffs than before the trade war began, and the average tariff across all those imports will be more than 21 percent.