5G Smartphone Shipments to Overtake 4G Phones in 2023, Says Canalys

5G-enabled handsets will reach nearly 800 million units in 2023, growing at a 180 percent compound annual growth rate to overtake 4G phones at 51 percent market share, said a July 1 Canalys report after Mobile World Congress Shanghai. Greater China will get 34 percent of 5G smartphone shipments in 2023, followed by North America at 19 percent and Asia Pacific at 17 percent. Chinese 5G licenses were granted a year earlier than planned, said analyst Nicole Peng, saying the role of government and “well-orchestrated” investments of operators and equipment suppliers were critical to the earlier launch. “5G smartphones will see rapid adoption in China, thanks to a strong government technology roadmap and operators’ financial capabilities,” said Peng, noting mass-market adoption of 5G smartphone doesn’t necessarily translate to a successful 5G deployment. Full 5G deployment will take much longer and will be much more complex than the previous network generation in order to realize the benefits of 5G beyond enhanced Mobile Broadband, Peng said. Chinese operators’ investments in 5G will reach $5 billion this year, with about 70,000 to 90,000 5G base stations to be built across the country. China Mobile has the broadest 5G smartphone portfolio at launch, though all three mobile operators will be aggressive with promotions to target 5G early adopters and high-value customers later this year, said analyst Mo Jia. Chinese brands, such as Huawei, Oppo, Xiaomi and ZTE, are 5G handset launch partners for the three operators, while Samsung will “use this window of opportunity to fight back in China.” Apple “will miss out, leaving loyal iPhone users waiting another year, which might risk them switching to aggressive competitors,” Jia said.