US-China Trade War Taking Toll on Retail Markets, According to Downgraded eMarketer Report

The U.S.-China trade war “is taking its toll, especially on China,” eMarketer reported June 25, cutting its 2019 outlook for China and the U.S. As a result, China won't surpass the U.S. in total retail sales this year, as expected, and won't, based on current conditions, until 2021, when it's forecast to pass the U.S. by $93 billion. EMarketer forecasts China retail sales will hit $5.3 trillion this year, up from $5.1 trillion in 2018 vs. U.S. retail sales of $5.5 trillion this year, up from $5.3 trillion. Slowing auto sales are the main drag on the Chinese economy, it said. The U.S. “is not immune to the effects of retaliatory Chinese tariffs,” the research firm said, cutting its previous outlook for U.S. retail sales growth from 3.2 percent to 3 percent, amounting to $5.47 trillion. By share, the U.S. has 21.9 percent of the global retail market vs. China at 21.1 percent, but China’s e-commerce market -- “by far the largest” globally at $1.93 trillion -- is three times that of the U.S.; that forecast is “largely unchanged.” Despite the slight slowdown this year, it said, U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to exceed 10 percent of total retail sales for the first time, with e-commerce growing 14 percent to $586.9 billion.