Texas Lawmakers From Both Parties Expect USMCA Passage in 2019

Even on the U.S.-Mexico border, Congress members were not hearing much alarm from constituents when President Donald Trump was threatening to levy tariffs on all Mexican imports because he was unhappy with the volume of Central American migration. "They don't necessarily understand how that was going to impact them," said Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas. He'd tell them: "This is going to impact jobs, like Toyota in San Antonio."

Hurd, who was speaking on a panel at the Wilson Center's "Building a Competitive U.S.-Mexico Border" conference June 20, said even more broadly, the trade community has not done a good job educating the broader population. He said he conducted a poll in his district -- which has the longest stretch of border in the country -- about whether NAFTA has been good for the Texas economy. He said one-third of voters said yes, one-third said no, and one-third said they didn't know.

Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, who was on the same panel, said it was incredible that the president chose to announce this while Congress is trying to pass the NAFTA revision. "If the president is going to threaten somebody that because he has a trade agreement with -- NAFTA 1.0 -- what's the purpose of having a trade agreement?"

He said that Trump in many ways is bullying Mexico. "When you treat Mexico as an enemy and Russia as an ally, the world has turned upside down," Cuellar said. Even with the complication, Cuellar expressed confidence that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will pass the House of Representatives. "I hope it will be in July, but if not, in September. We will have the vote. We will have the vote. We will have the vote," he said, repeating himself for emphasis. The audience applauded.

When asked by International Trade Today whether the implementing bill should clarify that Congress did not intend the president to use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to levy tariffs on countries we have a free trade agreement with, Cuellar said it would be his preference to do so. However, he noted, "We still gotta work with the Senate Republicans, our Republicans and the White House."

Hurd, who is one of those House Republicans, said: "It depends." He said while many in Congress would like to take back some of the tariff authority that has been delegated to the president, he said he doesn't want to jeopardize the ratification by adding this rider. "Are there enough votes to get that passed? I do not know," he said.

Both Hurd and Cuellar talked about the high volume of Central American families -- and others from Cuba and other countries -- that are turning themselves in at the Southwest border, and how that flow could be stemmed. Hurd said, "Ultimately the long-term cause of this is the lack of economic opportunity, extreme poverty and violence." He opposed Trump's decision to cut aid to Northern Triangle countries to punish them for caravans. "We shouldn't be cutting our aid to these countries, we should be increasing it."

Cuellar has sponsored a bill along with Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, that would clarify that the Flores agreement only applies to children traveling alone, not to families. The court settlement restricts how long children can be held in custody, and therefore means that families are released into the interior. He also wants to spend more on immigration judges placed at the border so that families can be repatriated more quickly, since 88 percent will lose their asylum claims. He noted that 44 percent don't show up to even their first court hearing, and there are 1 million people who have final removal orders that ICE has not had the resources to find and deport. Cornyn, who also spoke at the conference, said that the influx of asylum seekers has caused challenges to legal trade, as CBP officials who usually process cargo "are being tasked with handing out juice boxes and diapers."