Evasion of US Sanctions, Export Controls Growing More Common, Experts Say

There seems to be a growing interest in ways to evade U.S. sanctions and export controls, several experts said while speaking at a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing on May 9. One panelist specifically pointed to China, which he said he expects to begin smuggling oil from Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions.

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism that China will not heed the U.S.’s recent decision to eliminate sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports (see 1904220021). “It seems to me that every time we use sanctions, we run the same risk,” Alterman said. “If you keep using it, people will find ways to get around it.” Alterman added that “the Chinese are going to smuggle some oil … exactly how much, I’m not sure.” The hearing was on the topic of Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East.

Another panelist, Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said some U.S. sanctions, including those on Russia, are not working. “Sanctions alone are no substitute for policy,” she said, adding that they have not caused Russian President Vladimir Putin to “change his behavior.” Specifically, Russia, along with China, has profited from selling arms that are under strict U.S. export controls, said Christine Wormuth, a former under secretary of defense for policy. Wormuth said some Middle East countries have become disappointed with a lack of U.S. presence in the region and grown “frustrated” with U.S. export control conditions. As a result, she said, they turn to Russia as an alternative. She pointed to Egypt, saying the country “got fed up” with U.S. export conditions and instead bought from Moscow. “I think that will keep happening unless we do a better job of making it clear that we are staying in the region and that we are reliable,” she said.

Alterman agreed, adding that Saudi Arabia will purchase defense products from Russia and China as a form of protest over U.S. export controls, some of which have conditions about selling to human rights abusers. “[Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince] Mohammad Bin Salman especially is interested in demonstrating to the United States that he has other options if the United States is going to continue to talk about human rights,” Alterman said. “He doesn't have to rely on Washington.”

While Wormuth said Congress should be “emphasizing” the importance of export control conditions, she advocated for giving the executive branch some “wiggle room” to decide on the “right balance between the human rights conditions … and sales.” But she said the administration could use some “guard rails.” “Sales are an important part of our relationship,” Wormuth said. “But I think having some conditions in place is good.”

Andrew Exum, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, warned of the dangers of Russian and Chinese engineers indirectly getting access to U.S. defense products, and called for export controls to address that situation. Exum said U.S. export controls are leading countries to buy unmanned aircraft from Russia and China, which “often come with Chinese or Russian engineers.” As a result, those engineers get “in close proximity” to advanced U.S. weapon systems bought in unrelated sales. “That's something I think Congress can take a hard look at, to make sure [we’re] keeping distance between those weapons systems and foreign nationals.”