EU Negotiator Takes Hard Line on Brexit Delay as UK Scrambles to Request Extension
A no-deal Brexit on March 30 is still the current default outcome unless the United Kingdom can convince European Union leaders it has good reason for extending the deadline, said Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator during a March 19 press conference. “The House of Parliament voted against the withdrawal agreement” negotiated between the EU and the U.K. “and against a no-deal scenario,” he said. “But voting against no deal does not prevent it from happening. Every one should now finalize all preparations for a no-deal scenario,” he said.
The BBC reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is set to request an extension until June 30, with an option for a delay of up to two years. The U.K. Parliament voted March 14 to delay Brexit, but that vote was non-binding and all EU member states need to approve the Article 50 extension (see 1903140073). May had planned to base the delay on a planned third vote to approve the U.K.-EU transition deal, but those plans were thrown by the wayside when the U.K. speaker of Parliament cited a 1604 law that bars defeated measures from being brought up repeatedly.
Nonetheless, that transition deal remains “the only possible basis for an orderly withdrawal of the U.K. from the EU,” Barnier said. “Let me repeat this: if the U.K. wishes to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, this withdrawal treaty is the only treaty available,” he said. There is now “genuine uncertainty” in the EU and U.K. as a result of Parliament’s inability to ratify, Barnier said.
Once the U.K. requests the Brexit delay, it will be up to the 27 remaining EU member states “to assess the reason and the usefulness of an extension,” Barnier said. “And key questions will be, does an extension increase the chances for the ratification of the withdrawal agreement? Will the U.K. request an extension because it wants a bit more time to rework the political declaration?” The EU has said the substance of the transition agreement can’t be renegotiated, only the political declaration that lays out the framework for future relations, according to a fact sheet from the U.K. Parliament.
Speaking after a meeting on March 19, Barnier said that a long delay would have to be tied to a major new event, The Guardian newspaper reported. He told his ministers that a general election or a second Brexit referendum are possible reasons for a long delay, according to the report.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will “fight until the last minute” to make sure that the U.K.’s withdrawal is orderly, she said March 19, according to a video and translation provided by The Guardian. “We haven’t got a lot of time for that, but we still have some days,” she said. But she declined to “speculate” about her decision on whether to extend, set for March 21, saying that it will depend on May’s proposal and the situation in Parliament.
A British member of the European Parliament voiced skepticism that Brexit will occur at all, in an EU press conference held earlier on March 19. “Let me leave you with those three key phrases: fake Brexit, meaningless votes and the fact that at the moment Brexit probably will not be delivered,” said Diane James of the Euro-skeptic Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy party. “And you could probably all cheer on that note.”