Cable Owned Q4 Broadband Adds; vMVPD Subscribers Slide, Says Analyst

“Speed matters and cable has a better mousetrap,” Pivotal Research Group's Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Thursday. Cable took 100 percent share of broadband net new subscriptions in Q4, 770,000 vs. the 795,000 Pivotal forecast, while telcos lost 130,000. The analyst sees “material cable data sub growth” ahead, at the expense of telcos’ copper architecture, currently numbering about 20 million subscribers, while fixed 5G is an “unlikely material competitor” over three-five years. U.S. broadband household penetration is 83.1 percent. VMVPDs reversed course and lost 75,000 subscribers vs. a gain of 1 million a year ago, Wlodarczak said, with vMVPD players finding their subscribers are “highly price sensitive.” Price hikes were met with “significant churn,” led by AT&T’s DirecTV Now. VMVPDs are “basically offering consumers fewer channels at about the same price without the quality of service,” Wlodarczak said, and limited credit checks are bringing in “very low-quality average subscribers.” The December quarter was “ugly” for pay TV, which had a 100 percent increase in subscriber losses, 300,000 more than Pivotal forecast, for the 10th consecutive quarterly subscription decline. Cable’s 320,000 subscriber losses in the quarter were in line with forecasts, while satellite TV lost 810,000, its worst quarter ever, which Wlodarczak attributed to cable’s increased bundling of broadband with “an improving video product.” At year-end, household penetration of traditional pay TV was 72.6 percent.