Higher Turnover at FCC Due to Shutdown Woes Seen Unlikely

Experts doubt the partial federal shutdown and looming threat of another will mean more worker turnover in coming months at the FCC and other agencies. That's especially among professionals ranks such as engineers and lawyers. Others are less sure.

The FTC said it "works hard at recruitment" and was rated the No. 1 midsize agency to work at in 2018 by the Partnership for Public Service (see here and 1812120038). The agency said it doesn't know what kind of effect the shutdown might have. The FCC and National Treasury Employees Union, which represents unionized FCC workers, didn't comment.

LinkedIn emailed us that in January, it had a 59 percent jump in shutdown-affected workers indicating they're open to new job opportunities relative to unaffected workers versus the same time a year ago. It said InMail messaging to shutdown-affected workers was up 60 percent relative to unaffected workers in January, indicating companies are targeting those workers for possible recruitment. Indeed blogged Jan. 24 it was seeing increased clicks on new jobs by workers at the Department of Homeland Security and some other agencies over what's typical. It told us it didn't have a big enough sample size to look at the FCC or FTC.

Fear of substantial turnover is "justifiable," but far more likely is a marginal increase, said Bill Resh, University of Southern California public policy associate professor. Federal turnover when the Donald Trump administration came in was up compared with past changes in administration -- as a lot of careerists opted to leave, Resh said. Since then, turnover has been relatively consistent with historic trends, though government still faces "a quiet crisis" with the majority of senior executives retirement age, he said. He said the December-January shutdown likely wasn't "enough to push the needle," and it would take another prolonged closure -- or perhaps a Trump re-election in 2020 -- to result in notable turnover. He said the 2013 shutdown led to no notable effect on federal employment.

Given limited job opportunities outside government offering similar intrinsic -- including public service and jobs that can be intrinsically interesting, plus good compensation -- don't expect big churn among middle-management ranks and lower in specialized areas, Resh said. Among more senior-level staff, especially those in specialized professions where there's private-sector demand, the picture could be different, he said.

If an agency lawyer already is questioning whether the job is professionally or personally satisfying, the shutdown is another pressure point, emailed Martha Ann Sisson, co-founder of legal search firm Garrison & Sisson. Many work for the federal government because they believe in its mission and the nature of the work, and there’s seemingly an uptick in people throughout government expressing concern they may be less able to work toward that mission under the current administration, she said. If there’s a demand for the lawyer’s particular expertise in the private sector, churn can increase.

Job insecurity issues related to this administration meant more federal employees looking at options elsewhere, but it's not clear the shutdown will accelerate that, said Harrison Barnes, managing director, legal search firm BCG Attorney Search. He said FCC high-level professionals "have been doing pretty well lately" in their jobs outside the agency. Law firms are looking for a half dozen or so hires with FCC experience.

The job uncertainty that comes with a partial shutdown "is obviously hard on everyone," said FCBA President-elect Joshua Turner, a Wiley Rein wireless and wireline lawyer. If more employees leave, it's also not clear that's wholly negative, since institutional knowledge and experience is a plus but so too is an influx of new ideas, he said. He said it's unlikely the shutdown would notably deter people from going from law firms to agency work.

American University Department of Public Administration and Policy Executive in Residence Patrick Malone said professionals in public service, such as lawyers and doctors, typically make more in the private sector, and issues like shutdowns can undercut their public service motivation. Given the shuttering's length, and the increasingly divided political culture, if there were ever a risk "for a post-shutdown meltdown, this is probably the time," he said.

It's unclear if agencies will have a tougher time recruiting. Getting hired by the federal government is a rigorous process, and the threat of weeks without a paycheck atop that "doesn't fly with millennials and Gen Zs," said Malone. Sisson said recruiting and hiring shouldn't be affected since there will always be people who want public sector experience. It’s almost impossible to find a law firm that will let you transition from one specialty area to another but government will help lawyers come up to speed on such particulars, she said.

The shutdown makes it harder for the government to recruit people if their paychecks "are subject to disputes on Capitol Hill," said Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel at last week's meeting. "I'm not just worried about this for the Federal Communications Commission. I'm worried about this for the government writ large."