US-China Trade Frictions Among Policy ‘Mistakes’ Affecting 2019 Economy, IHS Says

Policy “mistakes,” especially the Trump administration’s Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, “continue to be the biggest threats” to global economic growth in 2019, IHS Markit said in a study released Monday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. A “perfect storm” of economic developments “shook markets in late 2018,” including U.S.- China trade frictions, and the U.S. government shutdown, it said. “However, it’s important to note that the stock market is not a reliable predictor of recessions, and the probability of a recession in 2019 remains low.” IHS expects the global economy to grow at a rate of 3 percent in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2020, “below the rates seen in 2017 and 2018,” it said.