OLED Expected to Assume Lead in Premium TV Segment, Says Analyst

Neither OLED nor quantum dot TVs dominates the premium TV segment, IHS Markit analyst Paul Gagnon told us at an HDMI Licensing Administrator news briefing Thursday in New York (see 181108003), but the scale should tip toward OLED soon. In what IHS classifies as premium TV -- $1,000-and up -- 65-inch non-quantum dot LCD displays represent most TV shipments, said Gagnon. But those prices should fall below a grand in one to two years, leaving OLED to dominate the $1,000-and-over segment for a period. “It’s difficult to anticipate where price points will head for quantum dot because Samsung is the primary driver of that technology,” said Gagnon, who cited Samsung’s new “aggressive” pricing strategy for QLED TVs in its 2018 lineup. Samsung brought down the buy-in price for QLED in entry-level Q6 and Q7 product lines, which, size for size, are priced “quite a bit below” ($800-$1,000) entry-level OLED TVs from LG and Sony, he noted. By contrast, QLED was priced on par with OLED in 2016 and 2017, the analyst said. OLED supply will increase in 2019 due to a new LG OLED factory in Guangzhou, China, set to go on line late next year, which should help bring down prices, too, Gagnon said. Meanwhile, the trend toward larger TV screen sizes will continue through the holiday season, as 60-inch and larger TVs are forecast to see the most growth in Q4 vs. 2017. Gagnon also cited resurgence in the 50-inch category as price points have become more aggressive. Prices for LCD panels have been falling for 12 months, said Gagnon, saying “there’s room to maneuver on pricing” for retailers and brands in Q4. The analyst doesn’t expect issues with glut or inventory carryover from the holiday this year, citing an upbeat consumer mood fed by low unemployment and wage growth that he expects to translate to a “pretty decent” holiday season. The 40- and 55-inch 4K TV categories could have tight availability this season, with the 55-inch class having reached possible deal saturation after highly discounted Black Fridays in 2016 and 2017, he said. Meanwhile, Ultra HD 4K TVs have hit a tipping point and are expected to be 52 percent of global TV shipments in 2019, up from 45 percent this year, Gagnon said. More than 75 percent of TVs 40 inches and larger will be 4K next year, IHS forecast. Some 101 million 4K TVs will ship this year, it estimated, growing to 118 million in 2019 and 131 million in 2020.