With Cable's 'Big Tent' Vulnerable to Broadband Threats, Analyst Says 5G Could Be a Threat

Perhaps the biggest debate on cable among investors is how much 5G could threaten the industry's broadband market share, a longtime analyst said in a video released Tuesday by Citigroup. It's “a more uncertain environment than it's been” for the industry, said Jason Bazinet. Part of that is how far 5G from small cells will propagate through structures, he told an audience: 1,500 feet as some including in cable think or 3,000 feet as 5G "bulls" expect. The answer "makes a world of difference in terms of whether or not this is real," Bazinet said, because the shorter distance means about 20 percent of Americans can get in-home 5G over wireless networks v. 60 over the longer distance. "It may in fact be a wireless technology that dismantles the cable industry." Adding to uncertainty is whether T-Mobile and Sprint succeed in combining (see 1810310051) and building such a product, since Verizon is the only other major U.S. carrier that says it will do in-home fixed 5G. In a 5G-bullish outcome, "essentially, every single broadband net add is going to go to these networks, and cable stocks are done," the analyst said. "This big tent that the cable industry built because of that big, fat coaxial wire is now really vulnerable," he said earlier: "Because if something goes wrong with the internet" product financial stability, "the whole house of cards comes crashing down." CTIA didn't reply to queries Wednesday and NCTA declined to comment.