Disney Seen Selling Sky Stake, but Hulu's Direction Is Hazy in Comcast/Sky Deal

Disney/Fox will likely shed its Sky stake, but Hulu's fate is unclear, said analysts after Comcast's $40 billion auction bid over the weekend that was accepted by Sky's independent committee (see here). Comcast will likely follow up with deal that has it buying the rest of Sky from Disney/Fox "for the same stupendous price," and possibly as part of a swap where Disney takes Comcast's stake in Hulu, MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote Monday. He downgraded Comcast stock to neutral. He said Sky could be "an albatross" for Comcast given its satellite TV business and that satellite video distribution "is increasingly becoming obsolete." He said expanding Sky's nascent over-the-top business will be a challenge, with a variety of programmers going direct to consumer, meaning Comcast will have to ramp up creation of its own video content. BTIG's Richard Greenfield wrote investors Monday that given cord-cutting and cord-shaving trends, Disney/Fox and Comcast/Sky are "actually depressing" examples of legacy media staying locked in a comfort zone. He said Disney/Fox will likely tender its Sky stake as part of Comcast's offer to Sky shareholders since there's not an obvious strategic benefit to Disney/Fox remaining an investor in Sky. The analyst said Disney wants Comcast's Hulu stake, but Comcast isn't likely to sell since it can thus prevent Hulu from becoming a Disney-branded OTT service. He said with the Sky deal, Comcast is signaling that a deal for Charter Communications seems unlikely and that U.S. expansion isn't a priority. Instead, Discovery could be the next acquisition target for Comcast given Discovery's investments in Europe in recent years, Greenfield said. Comcast plans to keep its stake in Hulu, an informed person said. U.K. M&A rules are such that it couldn't make a side deal with Disney to sell its portion, the person noted. Comcast didn't comment. The company closed down 6 percent at $35.63.