Lock Companies' Smart Home Hold to Be Challenged by Amazon, Google, Says SA

Kwikset, Schlage and Yale will control more than 75 percent of the smart lock market by 2023, with nearly 26 million units expected to ship, totaling $2.4 billion in revenue, reported Strategy Analytics Wednesday. But the “looming threat” of Amazon and Google entering the smart lock space, along with consumer dynamics and Europe and Asia, will “complicate” leading vendors’ long-term plans, it said. “The strategies that have fueled the success of Kwikset, Schlage, Yale, August and others are providing a template for Amazon and Google to create their own offerings,” said analyst Bill Ablondi. Though smart lock companies and platform providers are collaborating now, Amazon or Google “will likely become competitors in the near future,” he said. As smart lock buyers shift from early adopters to mainstream customers, smart lock vendors will have to adjust to changing dynamics in the category, Ablondi said. The U.S. is by far the largest market for smart locks due to a higher percentage of single-family homes and more interest in home automation and security services, with Western Europe and Asia posing challenges “for even the largest smart lock companies,” said analyst Jack Narcotta. In Western Europe, climate control is more important to customers, and smart locks aren’t typically integrated into a smart home; in South Korea, smart homes typically have a shared entry protected by a commercial-grade lock system, he said. Homegrown brands such as Alibaba dominate the smart lock market in China, he said.