Study: US Soybean Exports Could Fall by 40 Percent If China Retaliates With 30 Percent Tariff

Total U.S. soybean exports could fall by 40 percent if China imposes a 30 percent tariff in retaliation for U.S. tariffs, a new study from Purdue University agricultural economists says. The study, which was paid for by the U.S. Soybean Export Council, estimates that a tariff of that size would cut Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans by 71 percent. More than 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports go to China. The economists also modeled the effect of a 10 percent tariff. In that case, total U.S. exports could fall by 18 percent, they estimated. Congress members from farm states have been anxious about China imposing retaliatory tariffs against soybeans, seen as a likely target, in response to Section 301 tariffs on China announced March 22 (see 1803220034).