US Needs to Update Worker-Adjustment Programs in Age of Automation, ITIF Says

Workforce automation won't result in the mass unemployment many experts predict, but modern American workforce-training programs are ill-equipped to deal with rapidly changing tech, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation reported. Forecasts say 15 to 85 percent of the workforce could transition to automation in coming decades. McKinsey & Co. in November projected as much as 30 percent of modern workforce activity could be replaced by automation by 2030, saying 15 percent is more realistic. ITIF President Robert Atkinson said during an event Tuesday that many agree with 15 percent, but some have much bleaker forecasts, painting a technological “apocalypse.”

Worst-case scenarios inspired executives like Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to lobby for slowing down the pace of automation transition, Atkinson said. He and the report’s co-authors say slowing down technological advancement might protect a small number of workers, harming the vast majority. ITIF said companies, lawmakers and agencies should embrace the technological wave, support a full-employment economy and focus efforts on training workers before they are displaced.

Atkinson said the reason for fears is the U.S. lacks an innovative worker adjustment program, compared with other countries. In Sweden, Atkinson said, workers don’t fear new technology. Instead, they worry about having old technology that will cause their organizations to fall behind, further lowering job security.

Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said American companies need to get far more serious about training, despite the high costs, because workers are going to need to continuously gain new skills throughout their careers. He cited AT&T as hoping to retrain 100,000 employees by 2020.

McKinsey Global Institute partner Susan Lund said slowing automation sounds “convenient,” but that’s not the answer. The U.S. has been a leader in productivity and innovation and will maintain that position only if it continues to outpace others, she added.

Partnership for 21st Century Learning CEO David Ross said high school is too late to shift someone’s skill set. He said evidence suggests people start gaining workforce skills before kindergarten. Atkinson said higher education should focus more on technical skills: Students can learn statistics over less-useful subjects like geometry or trigonometry.

Atkinson said companies are correctly shifting away from focusing on traditional degrees and accepting technical certifications. He argued bachelor’s degrees are more of a formality or box to check off on job applications, saying AT&T and IBM moved away from requiring them for certain positions. "Many, many jobs don’t actually require the degree," he said.

David Barnes, IBM vice president-global workforce policy, said the company “jumped off that bridge” in terms of requiring a bachelor’s degree for cloud and security positions. IBM labeled those positions “new-collar” jobs.