IHS Sees More Than 33 Million Self-Driving Cars Being Sold Globally in 2040

More than 33 million autonomous vehicles will be sold globally in 2040, a substantial increase from the 51,000 units forecast for the first year of significant volume in 2021, said IHS Markit in a Tuesday report. IHS sees the “rapid convergence” of autonomous driving and “mobility services” such as ride-sharing becoming a “central driver of early deployment and growth,” it said. The U.S. will “lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of production autonomous vehicles” beginning as early as next year, and Europe and China “are expected to begin adding considerable volume from 2021 onward,” it said. That many individual states and the nation as a whole are expected to adopt an “industry-friendly regulatory approach” toward autonomous driving will help speed U.S. deployment, said the report: “The first uses will be in mobility service fleets, which will provide early hands-on experience with the technology and help reduce consumer skepticism. Announcements from General Motors, Waymo and Uber contribute to early projected mobility fleet volumes in 2019 before personal autonomous vehicles become available as early as 2021. Total U.S. volume of autonomous vehicles is expected to reach 7.4 million units per year in 2040.”