Number of Satellite Launch Facilities Growing, Raising Bubble Questions

It's unclear how much demand there will be for the growing number space launch facilities that are being established in the U.S., driven in part by the expected low earth orbit (LEO) satellite boom. "I characterize the next decade as the Roaring '20s," with capital markets supporting numerous launch businesses, showing optimism launch demand will be big, said Southwest Research Institute Chairman-Commercial Spaceflight Federation Alan Stern. Within a decade, there might be a modest increase in the number of launches per year, "but not dramatic growth," the one exception being expected sizable growth suborbital space activity like commercial manned spaceflight, countered Bryce Space and Technology analyst Phil Smith.

Over the past two years the FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation has processed applications for Virgin Galactic launches from the Mojave Air and Space Port in California, the addition of medium-lift launch capabilities at Alaska's Kodiak Launch Complex and environmental approval for the Houston Spaceport and Georgia's Spaceport Camden. The agency didn't comment on any pre-application consultations it has engaged in with other possible spaceports. Smith said the FAA has licensed more than 10 commercial launch and re-entry sites, though there hasn't been sizable activity at them and many are licensed for suborbital launches. But more are in the works, typically put together by states as a route to economic development, trying to leverage assets not effectively being used, like a retired Air Force base, he said.

If enough of the smallsat and LEO plans come to fruition, especially mega constellations like SpaceX and OneWeb, launch capacity -- both the number of rockets and of launch sites -- “is going to become an issue,” said Chris Baugh, Northern Sky Research president. One significant launch failure could compound that problem, he said.

The demand for launch sites will depend on how many smallsat constellations end up being launched, but a bigger issue for such constellations is geographic diversity of launch sites, said Satellite Industry Association (SIA) President Tom Stroup. He said he hasn't seen studies that analyze the launch facility supply issue in detail, but the general sense in the industry is that there will be a need going forward. According to SIA, at least 33 LEO-capacity launch vehicles are under development worldwide.

The launch capacity being built today exceeds the ability of existing spaceports in Virginia, California and Florida, leading to new ones coming online such as Space Florida, Alaska's Pacific Spaceport Complex and Georgia's Camden, Stern said.

The development of reliable, reusable launch vehicles will open the door to interior U.S. states potentially hosting spaceports, since they won't need oceanic "dumping grounds" for first stages, Stern said. He said that could result in more southern and southwestern states taking part. Almost all polar launches today are out of California, but Kansas could become a launch base, he said. At the same time, he said, state authorities "can't just binge" and need to make "serious judgments" about the launch market.

For now, facility availability isn't a constraint on launches, Smith said. Some launch facilities have been criticized for not having as much activity as expected, but it's still natural to assume other states will look at their own facilities, given the growing space industry, Stroup said.

There's also increased launch site competition worldwide, offering varying degrees of capability. India, China and Japan could pose competitive challenges as they look for a bigger share of the commercial space launch market, Stern said. Russia is building a facility in the eastern part of the country, with China having opened a new site last year, Smith said. But many countries are more interested in having dedicated satcom or remote sensing satellites than launch capability, given the costs involved, he said.