TV Ratings to Tumble, Pressuring Programmers Into M&A, MoffettNathanson Analyst Says

The growth of on-demand viewing platforms and Nielsen's NPX methodology change likely means collapsing TV ratings, with a potential 12 percent drop in Q2 among viewers ages 18-49 watching live and within three days of broadcast, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote investors Monday. That will pressure national TV advertising worse than previously forecast, he said, predicting Q2 net subscriber losses among traditional MVPDs of 2.8 percent -- though factoring in virtual MVPD subscriber growth could mitigate it some. The analysts said reports of Discovery Communications and Viacom being interested in Scripps Networks (see 1707190015) make sense because neither has big presence on virtual MVPD lineups but could leverage Scripps' Food and HGTV networks to change that.