Cord-cutting Seen Hitting Pay-TV Universe, With Charter/Dish Responses Differing

Q1 is usually strong for pay TV, but not this year, with subscriber numbers "suggest[ing] a litany of worst-evers" as cord-cutting is coming in full force, MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote investors Wednesday. Citing publicly traded MVPDs that have reported results, he said linear video subscriber losses are setting a new record for the rate of decline and for acceleration in rate of decline. Moffett said even adding in virtual MVPD subscribers, subscriber growth still declined. The cumulative number of households not subscribing to pay TV "is much too big to ignore, and it's only getting bigger," the analyst said, saying password sharing is potentially one large issue. "Perhaps the most obvious takeaway of all is that the [virtual MVPD] business looks like a truly awful one ... if the goal is to, say, make money," said the note. Time will tell which approach to dealing with declining video subscriber numbers -- Dish Network's or Charter Communications' -- will win out, said nScreenMedia analyst Colin Dixon in a blog post Tuesday. The two approaches are markedly different, he said, with Dish hoping to recapture cord-cutters through its cheaper, lower-margin Sling TV and Charter banking on exclusive content to slow the decline. "The attitude to change" is at the heart of the difference between the two, he said. Charter sees the decline as part of a long-term but orderly decline in MVPD subscribers, while Dish -- seeing the same trend -- "also sees an opportunity to take advantage of the change, and maybe even drive it," he said. The companies reported Q1 subscriber and other results this week (see 1705020053 and 1705010041).