NAB Repacking Petition Likely to Get Pai Support, Wireless Pushback

FCC Chairman Ajit Pai is seen as receptive to a petition from NAB (see 1703170055) for changes to the post-incentive auction repacking plan, but any changes to the repacking timeline are likely to face considerable pushback from industry, said broadcast officials and analysts in interviews. Though broadcasters repeatedly praised Pai, his previous positions in their favor -- on ATSC 3.0, and his perceived plans to roll back media ownership rules -- haven’t faced strong opposition from a competing industry. On the repacking, NAB’s requests for a looser timeline are diametrically opposed to calls for a faster transition from wireless providers such as T-Mobile, said Roger Entner, analyst at Recon Analytics: “They need that spectrum tomorrow!”

NAB wants a looser timeline, more flexibility on what phases broadcasters are repacked in, more mitigation for disrupted broadcasters and FM stations, more international coordination, and a more proactive FCC oversight of the transition. Requests that impact the repacking timeline are likely going to be the most difficult, said Cowen and Co. analyst Paul Gallant. Much of the auction rules were the result of inter-industry negotiation, Gallant said. “So perhaps questions around the timing can get worked out by the competing interests.”

The current transition plan lists removing broadcasters from the 600 MHz spectrum quickly as one of its major priorities. Under the new FCC, that plan can get a fresh look, said Pillsbury Winthrop broadcast attorney Scott Flick. The FCC maintained simultaneously that no stations will be forced to go dark, and that the repacking will be complete in 39 months, Flick said. “They can’t both be true.” The 39-month deadline was an arbitrary number selected by the FCC before the actual breadth of the repacking was known, so it’s unlikely to accurately reflect how long the repacking will actually take, a broadcast official said. FCC officials said the repacking timeline is partially based on the statutorily set date after which broadcasters can’t be reimbursed. The broadcast official argued that since the commission is already reimbursing broadcasters up front, that deadline is no barrier to extending the repacking.

Though industry officials told us Pai would likely look favorably on aspects of the petition, there's likely to be considerable pressure not to delay the repacking, analysts said. Pai listed “uninterrupted access to over-the-air television” and “a timely clearing of the new wireless band” as top priorities (see 1702100064) after the clock phase of the incentive auction ended. “Early out of the gate, the chairman has been very supportive of broadcasters, so he may well be receptive to their requests,” Gallant said. “But I’m sure he gets the time value of spectrum and the boost these airwaves will give wireless broadband, especially in rural areas.”

Pai may also face outside pressures, Entner said. The current 39-month timeline will take the repacking to the end of President Donald Trump’s four-year term. If the Trump White House wants to claim credit for the jobs and economic boost that will be created by the influx of new wireless spectrum in its first term, it needs the transition to happen sooner rather than later, he said. “This is an administration that wants to create jobs and investment.”