Gray/Dish Network Retrans Dispute Could Go a While, Wells Fargo Analyst Says

The Gray/Dish Network retransmission dispute likely won't end quickly, judging by the tone of comments by Gray, Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker emailed investors Tuesday. Dish probably has 2 million Gray viewers, but the financial impact to the broadcaster likely will be mitigated by the fact most of its reverse compensation subscription base is variable, so it won't owe the full reverse comp to networks if Gray stops receiving retrans revenue from Dish, she wrote. She said Dish likely could face subscriber losses well in excess of 7 percent in Gray markets in this dispute, and Gray could snag a sizable amount of Dish-related retrans when those lost Dish subscribers move to other multichannel video programming distributors. Gray, announcing the carriage disruption to have taken effect 7 p.m. Tuesday, said Dish "has refused after many months to even begin negotiating carriage terms that are consistent with those that Dish has provided to other broadcasters and cable channels." Pointing to other recent disruptions involving Gray stations or other broadcasters, Gray said it didn't expect the blackout to end soon. In a statement, Dish said it was still working to reach a deal before the contract expiration, and the broadcaster was "simply trying to use consumers as pawns in an effort to gain leverage for their own economic benefit.”