ABI Sees Level 2 and 3 Systems Accounting for 86% of Autonomous Cars in 2026

Semi-autonomous systems will continue to dominate the market for self-driving cars over the next decade, ABI Research said in a Thursday report. It forecasts that vehicles with Level 2 and 3 systems on the Society of Automotive Engineers six-step scale of driving autonomy will account for 86 percent of the autonomous vehicles shipping in 2026. But “higher levels of autonomy will gain traction quickly,” accounting for just under a third of autonomous vehicles shipping in 2030, it said. Self-driving cars “will transform the way mobility is consumed, bringing environmental, societal and convenience advantages to the end user,” ABI said. “It also represents a fundamental disruption to the business model that dominated the automotive market for almost one century. OEMs have much to gain in pursuing semi-autonomous operation, maintaining the importance of the driving experience.” Recent announcements from BMW, Ford, Tesla and others “signal that OEMs are not only looking to introduce higher levels of autonomy by 2021, but are also actively planning to transition from vehicle sellers to mobility providers.” ABI sees the “quasi-universal” 2021 target date for the rollout of Level 4 and 5 systems representing “a significant acceleration in the autonomous technology market,” it said.