NRF Sees Holiday Sales Rising 3.6%, ‘Significantly Higher’ Than 10-Year Average

The National Retail Federation sees U.S. holiday sales rising 3.6 percent this year to $655.8 billion, it said in a Tuesday forecast report. That increase would be “significantly higher” than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since the economic recovery began in 2009, NRF said. “All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season,” said President Matthew Shay in a statement. Holiday sales in 2015 increased 3 percent from a year earlier, NRF said. “Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year, resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season,” said Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the presidential election outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main issues at play with the greatest potential to shake consumer confidence and impact shopping patterns. However, the economic spending power of the consumer is resilient and it should never be underestimated.”