US Presidential Election Causing Uncertainty for Brokers in Canada, Mexico

NIAGARA ON THE LAKE, Ontario -- With protectionism dominating discussion of trade in the U.S. presidential election, customs brokers throughout North America face uncertainty as to the fate of cross-border flows, said leadership of broker groups from the U.S., Canada and Mexico at the Canadian Society of Customs Brokers National Conference Sept. 27. Given how connected the three countries are, promises of higher tariffs, a border wall and a renegotiation of the terms of NAFTA from Republican candidate Donald Trump seem far-fetched, said Antonio Vidales, president of the Mexican brokers group CAAAREM. Campaign promises often differ from what happens when a candidate assumes office, he said. Nonetheless, Mexican brokers are worried, given the high volume of trade between the two countries.

The integration of North American markets means following through on those protectionist promises may prove impossible, said Kim Campbell, outgoing chair of the CSCB. U.S. borders were closed for only two days after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and “very quickly the governments decided that couldn’t happen because all of the economies were tanking within a very short period of time,” she said. Though confident past experience will prevent the next administration from taking extreme measures, “I think there will be a period of time of educating and making sure people know that,” she said.

With both presidents voicing protectionist views, including Hillary Clinton’s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the National Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association of America has gone to Congress to press for implementation of the trade deal, NCBFAA president Geoff Powell said. Though prospects for passage of an implementation bill currently look dim, the views of those in Congress may change dramatically after the election, he said. Many currently opposed because of public opinion could again support the bill, given their pro-trade views in the past. At the NCBFAA’s Government Affairs Conference in early September, association members went to Congress to reinforce the importance of trade to the U.S. economy, he said. In the long run, the consumer is the ultimate decider of what happens, and consumers ultimately want cheap goods, delivered fast, Powell said.