Tablet Declines to Hit All-Time Low This Year, But Reverse Due in 2018, Says IDC

Tablets will continue their slump through the rest of 2016 but are poised to return to growth in 2018, as detachable tablets continue to steal share from traditional PCs, said an IDC report Tuesday. Tablet shipments will decline 11.5 percent overall this year to 183.4 million units, an all-time low growth rate, said the research firm, but forecasts call for 194.2 million shipments in 2020. The commercial segment will be key to growth of detachable tablets, said IDC. Windows and iOS already are positioned solidly with detachable tablets, and with the latest version of Android, "Google will also have a horse in the race as they finally offer better multitasking support and added security features,” said IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani. IDC sees a shift to larger devices during the forecast period. In 2016, 55 percent of all tablets will be 9 inches or smaller, but that share will drop to 40 percent by 2020, said IDC. "We see smaller slate tablets being offered at very aggressive price points, leaving little room for revenues outside of a pure volume or platform play like for Amazon for instance," said analyst Jean Philippe Bouchard. Price pressure and more demand for larger screen sizes and detachable tablets will push manufacturers to grow their portfolios, he said. Slate tablets will continue to be most shipments through 2020, shrinking from 85 percent of tablets shipped this year to 68 percent by 2020, it said. Most slates will ship in emerging markets where consumers “seek out any low cost computing device,” it said. Android will hold 66.2 percent tablet market share this year, dropping to 57.8 percent in 2020, said IDC, while Windows’ share increases from 11.3 percent to 19.3 percent for the period. Apple tablet share, meanwhile, will remain relatively flat from 22.4 percent share this year to 22.9 percent in 2020, said IDC.