BTIG Analyst Predicts Shift in Ad Spend to Mobile Devices as Linear TV Viewing Shrinks

Brands will be forced to shift advertising from TV to mobile devices as linear TV “continues to fade” and brands look to engage further with consumers, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield wrote investors Tuesday. Although must-watch live TV events such as sports and awards shows will continue to make a strong case for live TV, “The concept of flipping through channels and watching linear, live TV will fade away for most consumers,” Greenfield said. Shifting TV ad dollars from TV networks to mobile will benefit platforms including Google, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter, Greenfield said. Citing enthusiasm from CBS CEO Les Moonves last week predicting a “substantially higher” 2016 upfront ad-selling season, Greenfield said Moonves “appears to be in full-on denial as we believe it is quite clear that consumer TV viewing behavior has shifted dramatically over the past several years” toward binge viewing. The trend has become “increasingly mainstream over the past 18 months,” said Greenfield. The analyst cited a comment from CBS Chief Operating Officer Joe Ianniello on an earnings call last week, where Ianniello said the network’s All Access viewing by millennials was a “really good promotional vehicle for the catch-up,” before “they start watching back at the network.” TV network executives “keep hoping an improved TV Everywhere product can help solve their live, linear ratings problem,” but even if networks keep current-season stacking rights, “the experience of TV Everywhere remains poor, at best,” Greenfield said. “Forcing consumers to watch heavy, unskippable and often repetitive ad loads is only going to push consumers even faster toward binge viewing on ad-free platforms such as Netflix, Amazon and Hulu (in addition to HBO Now, Showtime and Starz).” Although the shift away from linear viewing to mobile won’t happen “overnight,” said Greenfield, “the trend is clear and likely to accelerate as more consumers are introduced to binging and more original series are premiered on binge-first platforms.” Greenfield recalled a comment last year by CBS Chief Research Officer David Poltrack, who said consumers were so obsessed with their mobile devices while watching TV, they were forgetting to fast-forward through commercials.