IHS Downgrades Forecast for 2015 LCD TV Shipments, Citing Economic Headwinds

IHS scaled back its LCD TV shipment forecast ​for 2015 due to slowing demand in North America, Europe and other developed regions. Following “surprisingly strong” shipment growth of 7 percent last year, IHS now expects worldwide LCD TV shipments to grow 4 percent for 2015 to 235 million units. Strong growth is “difficult to maintain,” Paul Gagnon, IHS director-TV research, said in a report. Last year’s uptake was driven by “pent-up demand and a wave of screen-size upgrades by consumers, after several years of shipment declines,” Gagnon said. Rising economic headwinds, including currency deflation, will temper price declines and “perhaps result in some price increases, if deflation becomes severe,” leading to a drop in discretionary spending, he said. The economic impact is expected to take a particular toll on LCD TV shipments in Eastern Europe, where the forecast for 2015 has been lowered by 18 percent year over year, IHS said. But overall shipment growth is expected to remain above 2013 levels, it said. Shipments of 4K UHD TVs will continue to grow as consumers upgrade TVs from the average 32-inch screen size, but shipments of 4K TVs were 11.7 million units last year, just shy of the 12.3 million units forecast early in the year. Shipments of 4K LCD TV and OLED TV are expected to exceed 30 million units this year, with more than 60 percent of those shipments in 50-inch and larger screen sizes. In 2014, 4K TVs carried an average price premium of 143 percent over their 1080p counterparts, and that premium is expected to fall to under 100 percent this year. While 4K will remain a “high-end technology,” affordability of 4K TVs will continue to improve, and IHS expects 1080p offerings in large-screen sizes “to start fading,” Gagnon said.