NSA Surveillance Leaks Have Damaged U.S. Influence on Internet Governance Debate, But Repair Seen Possible

Leaks that began a year ago this month about controversial National Security Agency surveillance programs continue to damage U.S. relations with erstwhile and potential allies on Internet governance issues, but there are signs that damage can be and already is being repaired, experts said Wednesday at a Brookings Institution event. The U.S. has been trying to maintain and grow a coalition of national governments that back the existing multistakeholder Internet governance model, in the lead- up to upcoming international forums that will affect Internet governance. U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy Daniel Sepulveda has acknowledged the NSA programs have affected his discussions with foreign governments on Internet governance issues (CD Nov 8 p5).

The NSA leaks emboldened China, Russia and other “authoritarian” countries that have favored more government control of the Internet to “push back” against the U.S. position with increased vigor, said Ian Wallace, visiting fellow for the Brookings Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. The leaks have also caused “swing states” not fully aligned with the position of liberal democracies like the U.S. or authoritarian nations like China to become “less inclined” to align with the U.S., and have “undermined” the U.S. ability to work with its allies on Internet governance issues, which Wallace called the “most worrying trend.”

The U.S. ability to “marshal its allies” will undoubtedly affect how well it’s able to assert its influence on future Internet governance debates, including the ITU Plenipotentiary Conference Oct. 20-Nov. 7 in Busan, South Korea, Wallace said. Nations in the pro-authoritarian Internet governance camp have been pushing for the ITU to have a larger role in Internet governance matters, and that will likely result in the ITU Plenipotentiary Conference ending with the election of a Chinese ITU secretary-general, Wallace said.

Although swing states have become more reluctant to align with the U.S. on Internet governance, they appear more willing to “move past” the NSA controversy, in part due to their own self interests aligning more with the U.S., said Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Strategy and Order. The swing states also have “somewhat limited” alternatives to the U.S. position, as the authoritarian nations have failed to present a “compelling alternative” governance model, said James Lewis, Center for Strategic and International Studies director-Strategic Technologies Program.

One of the swing states has long been Brazil, which hosted the NETmundial conference in April to discuss the future of the multistakeholder model because of its concerns over NSA surveillance. Although Brazilian President Dilma Roussef’s criticism of the NSA programs and her country’s past Internet governance position have appeared hostile to the U.S.’s position, Brazil appears increasingly willing to move past the NSA programs, said Harold Trinkunas, director of Brookings’s Latin America Initiative. The NETmundial conference itself turned into a net positive for the U.S. multistakeholder vision, in part because NTIA announced its plans to spin off its oversight of the IANA functions so close to the conference, Wallace said.