Smartphone, Tablet Growth Seen Negating Chip Declines in Other Sectors

Following relatively flat projected volume of $304 billion in 2012, semiconductor revenue is projected to grow 4.9 percent next year to $319 billion, according to International Data Corp. Growth of less than 1 percent this year resulted from numerous market factors including weak PC demand, price deterioration in memory, semiconductor inventory rationalization, a slowdown in China, economic issues in Europe and Japan and the impact of the looming fiscal cliff on corporate IT spending in the U.S., IDC said.

Heading into 2013, IDC expects semiconductor inventories to come in line with demand in Q3 and the market to return to growth in the second half driven by smartphones, tablets, set-top boxes and automotive electronics, it said. Semiconductors for smartphones will see “healthy revenue growth” fueled by consumers’ appetite for data, multimedia processing, and multitasking with high-end smartphones in developed countries, while an ongoing transition to 3G networks spurs smartphone adoption in developing regions, said Mali Venkatesan, research manager for semiconductors at IDC. PCs will continue “a period of transition” in 2013 until technology and innovation “change the course of demand,” Venkatesan said.

By region, Japan and Europe continue to be the two weakest markets, IDC said. Although GDP growth has slowed in China, India, and Brazil, demand for smartphones, tablets and automotive electronics remains strong in those countries, IDC said. In the U.S., 4G phones, tablets, e-readers, network infrastructure and set-top boxes will drive “a healthy semiconductor growth cycle over the next five years,” it said.

By category, computers will see year-over-year growth of 1.7 percent in 2013 and are expected to show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7 percent from 2011 to 2016, IDC said. Semiconductor revenue from mobile PC demand will rebound from a decline of 7.7 percent this year to 5.5 percent growth in 2013, it said. Semiconductor volume for 4G phones will surge 140 percent in 2013 with a CAGR of 103 percent for 2011-2016, IDC said.

In the consumer segment, tablets, e-readers, set-top boxes and Blu-ray players are all forecast to see “above average” semiconductor revenue growth next year, IDC said, while sales of DVD players and recorders, portable media players and game consoles continue to erode. Overall semiconductor revenue for the consumer segment will grow 9.8 percent in 2013 and show a 6 percent CAGR from 2011-1016, IDC said. Strong global automotive demand and increased semiconductor content from infotainment systems, automobile body electronics and driver safety systems will lead to a 5.9 percent CAGR from 2011-2016 in the automotive semiconductor segment, IDC said.