U.S., Japan, Europe Seen Driving Tablets Growth Next Five Years

Tablet shipments, the growth driver for the mobile PC market, will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, DisplaySearch said in its latest quarterly mobile PC shipment report. Overall mobile PC shipments, including tablets, will grow from 347 million units this year to more than 809 million units by 2017, DisplaySearch said. Notebook PC shipments are projected to grow from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units by 2017, according to the report, while tablets are expected to jump from 121 million units to 416 million units for the same period.

A key driver for growth in the tablet category is adoption in mature markets, including North America, Japan and Western Europe, which will account for two-thirds of tablet shipments this year, DisplaySearch said. “While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption,” said analyst Richard Shim. New entrants are launching their initial tablets in mature markets, and services and infrastructure needed to create compelling new usage models are better established in mature markets, he said. The mature markets will continue to account for more than 60 percent of tablet shipments throughout the forecast period, it said, with those markets increasing from 80 million units this year to 254 million units by 2017.

As the line between notebooks and tablets begins to blur, tablets will evolve in form factor and performance, building on their convenience-oriented features including instant-on capability, long battery life and exceptional portability, DisplaySearch said. With a shift to multi-core processors, increasingly stable operating systems, higher-resolution displays and ever-expanding app libraries, tablets will continue to become a compelling alternative to notebook PCs, it said. In response, notebook PCs are evolving to “meet the challenge from tablets,” according to the report. Notebook designers are developing thinner form factors, higher resolution displays and touch functionality, and those types of trends are expected to accelerate, DisplaySearch said. The notebook PC market will remain the largest part of the mobile PC market during the forecast period, it said, accounting for 60 percent of mobile PC shipments in 2012, declining to 49 percent by 2017.

According to results of a survey released Tuesday by Gartner, checking email is the number one activity users perform on their tablets at 81 percent of users, followed by reading news (69 percent), checking weather (63 percent), social networking (62 percent) and gaming (60 percent). On average, one in three respondents used their tablets to read a book, compared with 13 percent for notebook PCs and 7 percent for mobile phones, Gartner said. The shift from paper to screen-based consumption is not yet a straight substitution of one medium for another, according to Gartner. “We do not believe that the ‘paperless home’ will prevail, but it is clear that the ‘less-paper model’ is the new reality,” said Meike Escherich, analyst.

The survey confirmed that the main reason for buying a tablet is the form factor, Gartner said. Respondents said they bought a tablet over a PC for convenience, small size and light weight. The survey also found that 45 percent of respondents don’t share their tablet at all, indicating a tablet is “almost as personal” as a mobile phone in terms of usage and consumer attitude. The survey showed a trend for men to buy their own tablets and for women to receive them as gifts. The online survey of 510 consumers in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia -- who had to own a tablet and at least two other connected devices to participate -- was conducted late last year.