Nearly Three of Four Tablets Sold in 2011 Will Be iOS Devices, Gartner Says

Apple will lose 10 percent market share in tablets in 2011, but its 73.4 percent share of worldwide tablet sales, down from 83 percent in 2010, is still projected to total 46.7 million units, compared with 11 million for Android tablets, 3 million for Research in Motion’s QNX and 2 million for WebOS tablets, according to recent data from Gartner. Because of Apple’s “superior and unified user experience across hardware, software and services,” Gartner predicts the iOS platform will control more than 50 percent of the tablet market until 2014.

Android’s projected 17.3 percent tablet share for 2011 is up slightly from its 2010 share of 14.3 percent, but Gartner slashed the 2011 forecast for the Android OS by 28 percent from last quarter’s forecast. Android projections were cut because consumers are opting for similarly priced iPads when choosing between two platforms, Carolina Milanesi, research vice president, told us. “Although many Android devices offer higher hardware specifications, they lack a strong apps catalog and rely on a UI that is not as intuitive as the iPad,” she said. The forecast cutback would have been larger except for success of lower-end tablets in Asia, Gartner said, along with expectations surrounding the upcoming launch of Amazon’s tablet, due this fall. Gartner attributes Apple’s dominance to its “foresight” in creating the market and its planning for component supply including memory and screens, which allowed Apple to bring the iPad out at a “very competitive price” and with “no compromise in experience” among its various models that are differentiated by storage and connectivity options.

Most of Apple’s competitors are “struggling to meet Apple’s prices without considerably sacrificing margins,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. Screen quality and processing power are the two hardware features vendors “cannot afford to compromise on,” he said, saying manufacturers need to consider weigh the value of nonessential features to keep bill-of-materials costs competitive with those of the iPad.

RIM’s QNX platform is “promising,” but still in the early stages of development, Gartner said. RIM will be challenged to attract support from application developers at a time when it’s experiencing a “tough period” with its smartphone business, Gartner said. Windows 8, meanwhile, could face issues of “usability” as Microsoft pushes to spread the new OS across multiple devices. The late arrival of Windows 8 could limit its appeal to consumers as iPad and Android devices continue to become more entrenched, Gartner said. Microsoft tablets will have their biggest opportunities in the enterprise segment, Gartner said, where IT departments can benefit from integration with existing Microsoft software. To be successful, vendors entering the tablet market in 2012 will have to offer a “rich user experience,” a “strong tie” between smartphones and tablets, a good supply of apps, intuitive user interfaces and the ability to share content easily among devices, Gartner said.

Worldwide tablet sales across all platforms are forecast to total 63.6 million units this year, up more than 260 percent from 2010, Gartner said. By 2015, the category is expected to deliver sales of 326 million, it said.