China Soon to Pass U.S. in Annual PC Shipments, IDC Says

China passed the U.S. in Q2 to become the world’s largest PC market, according to IDC. During the quarter, roughly 18.5 million units -- both consumer and commercial -- worth $11.9 billion shipped in China, compared to 17.7 million units worth $11.7 billion in the U.S., IDC said. China represented 22 percent of global unit shipments of PCs, compared to the U.S. with 21 percent it said. For the full year, IDC still expects the U.S. to remain the largest market, with 73.5 million units forecast to ship in the U.S. versus 72.4 million in China, due to Q4 holiday season sales. China’s market, in contrast, traditionally contracts after its Q3 summer promotions, IDC said. China is not forecast to surpass the U.S. in annual PC shipments until 2012, when 85.2 million units are expected to ship in China and 76.6 million in the U.S., IDC said.

Risks ahead for China include inflation and economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe, IDC said. The U.S. and European economies are the primary consumer markets for much of China’s goods and hold a broader role in global financial stability, Loren Loverde, program vice president of IDC’s Worldwide PC Tracker, told us. Lenovo is well positioned in China, holding more than 30 percent market share in Q2 versus 10 percent for number two Dell, Loverde said. Dell, Acer, and HP make up the second tier of PC vendors in China, and each will benefit from China’s growth, but to a lesser extent than Lenovo, he said.

The Chinese government’s 12th Five-Year Plan, aimed at continuing growth in general and improving quality of life for a broader range of Chinese, will help buoy the growth rate of PC sales as they “relate directly to infrastructure investments in a range of cities and industries across the country as well as efforts to improve IT and communication access,” Loverde said.

In worldwide PC shipments, HP still has a “considerable lead,” with 18.1 percent, Loverde told us, but Lenovo will likely pull ahead based on China growth as well as recent momentum. The shift toward commercial business at HP and Dell “may diminish their growth in China,” Loverde said. For Q2, Lenovo held the third-largest market share in PCs with 12.2 percent, behind Dell at 12.9 percent, he said. Acer, in fourth place, had 10.7 percent for Q2, followed by Toshiba with 5.3, he said. Asus, Samsung, and smaller players including Tongfang and Haier will also benefit from growth in China, but have smaller share both in China and worldwide, Loverde said.