DisplaySearch Shaves TV Shipments Forecast, But 3D TV Outlook Unchanged

DisplaySearch cut the 2011 global outlook for TV shipments by three percent to 252 million units in its latest quarterly forecast report released Wednesday. While growth remains strong in emerging markets including China, Latin America and India where household penetration for flat-panel is “relatively low,” demand in developed markets including North America, Japan and Western Europe continues to be “very soft,” DisplaySearch said.

The Japanese TV market is expected to drop by 40 percent this year, although a slightly lower decline could result because demand leading up to the July 24 analog broadcast shutoff was “better than expected,” DisplaySearch said. The compound annual growth rate for TV shipments in emerging regions is expected to be 6 percent from 2011 through 2015, but 0.3 percent in developed regions, it said. China will become the world’s largest flat-panel TV market in 2011, overtaking North America and Europe, with more than 46 million units shipped, and will hold that spot throughout the forecast period, it said.

LCD continues to increase its share of the overall TV market, at about 84 percent, while plasma TV is seeing “slowly shrinking market share,” DisplaySearch said. This trend is mostly evident in the 40-49-inch screen segment, which is likely to lead plasma makers to focus on 50-inch and larger displays, where plasma is expected to hold 40-50 percent market share through 2015, it said. Plasma’s stake of the TV market, while still “relevant,” will shrink from 7 percent of units shipped worldwide in 2011 to less than five percent by 2015, it said.

LCD TV shipments are forecast to increase from 192 million last year to 210 million in 2011, according to the report. That’s a pullback from the previous forecast of 217 million for this year, representing the primary driver of the overall TV shipment revision, DisplaySearch said. New technologies, including LED backlights and 3D, are helping to keep overall LCD TV prices “very stable” in 2011, to where they've fallen “only seven percent” year-over-year, DisplaySearch said. That should keep revenue growth “slightly positive,” the report said. Looking ahead for LCD TV overall, revenue will likely start to drop around 2013 when current premium features see a more significant drop in value, DisplaySearch said. LED-backlit sets will account for about 46 percent of total 2011 LCD TV unit shipments, while 3D-capable sets account for 8 percent, it said.

The worldwide forecast for 3D TVs was not significantly changed in the most recent report. 3D TVs are expected to account for about 20 million shipments in 2011, rising to more than 100 million shipped by 2015, DisplaySearch said. Although consumer confusion about technology and standards is “likely to persist,” the falling premium and cost associated with 3D will make it a standard feature of 40-inch and larger sets, it said. In 2011, nearly a quarter of 40-inch and larger TVs shipped worldwide will be 3D-capable, rising to 84 percent by 2015, it said.

OLED is set to debut in late 2012 as a contender in the 40-inch and higher category, but growth will be limited to about two percent in that segment due to high prices and limited availability, DisplaySearch said.

Emerging regions, including China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, will have the strongest flat-panel TV sales growth over the next four years, averaging 17 percent growth per year, according to the report. The Asia Pacific region is positioned for strongest growth as the “late-adopting India market” begins to boom, it said. Developed regions will see no growth over the same time period, it said.