3D TV Shipments to Grow Dramatically in 2011, IHS Says

In what would be a major turnaround following disappointing 3D TV sales in 2010, worldwide shipments of 3D TVs are forecast to jump 463 percent in 2011 to 23.4 million, said data from IHS iSuppli. Driving the growth are TV price declines, increasing availability of content and a “pronounced” change in marketing and promotion strategies, IHS said. IHS termed the growth projections “startling” for the “much-publicized technology,” and said another year of triple-digit growth is expected in 2012. Shipments are expected to reach 54.2 million units in 2012, IHS said.

Prices for 3D TV fell 9 percent in March from February, according to IHS’s monthly US TV Price and Specifications Tracker, which said prices will downshift again within the year “in accordance with the feature mix dictated by public preferences at the moment.” Markups for 3D TV are 15-20 percent currently, “much lower than last year,” Riddhi Patel, IHS director for television systems and retail services, told us. Average price differential of 40-inch 120Hz 3D TVs ($1,963) and non-3D TVs ($1,381) in June 2010 was $582, she said. In March 2011, average prices had dropped to $1,363 for a 40-inch 3D model and $1,100 for non-3D, slashing the delta to $263, she said. In the 46-inch Full HD 240Hz LED LCD category, the price differential has collapsed to $110 from $900 within the year, she said. That price compression will continue and is expected to “democratize” 3D adoption across all consumer income brackets, she said.

"Television brands are changing strategies this year following lukewarm response to 3D in 2010 when consumers balked at the high price of sets and the lack of 3D content,” Patel said. “In 2011, however, brands are marketing 3D not as a must-have technology but as a desirable feature, similar to the approach they have taken with Internet connectivity."

3D manufacturers’ strategy is to allow consumers to decide to employ the 3D feature when they're ready, while providing peace of mind that their purchase is future-proofed, Patel said. “This gives consumers the appearance of having the choice to use a feature already present in a purchase that they made, instead of forcing them to buy a technology for which they might be unprepared,” she said. If it’s an active-shutter model with more expensive glasses, they can choose to buy the glasses at a later date, she said. Consumers shopping for a 40-inch TV are likely to be willing to pay a $200 premium for a 3D TV, she said. “They'll think, ‘I may as well buy it now because I'm not going to replace that set for at least another five years,'” she said. And they'll know “3D will be more prevalent in those five years, “ she said.

In addition to lower priced 3D TVs, Passive Film Patterned Retarder TVs will boost 3D’s appeal to consumers due mainly to price and convenience advantages with glasses, Patel said. Price will also be a factor in 3D being available in smaller, and therefore less expensive TVs. The first 32-inch 3D sets hit the U.S. market this year, with Sony’s model currently selling at Amazon.com for $737. While not a likely candidate for the home theater market, the 32-inch category should be well-received in the gamer market, Patel said. IHS forecasts that by 2015 passive 3D TV shipments will surpass those of active 3D.

LCD will remain the dominant technology for the 3D TV market, accounting for 83 percent of 3D TVs sold in 2011, according to IHS. Although plasma is a much smaller player, 3D penetration in plasma TV is higher, as manufacturers seek to slow the decline of the plasma market.