3D TV Market to Split Between Active-Shutter, Passive, Insight Media Predicts

More than 30 million passive TVs will be in the market by 2016 around the world, exceeding the number of active-shutter models, Insight Media President Chris Chinnock said Wednesday on a 3D@Home Consortium webinar. The “clear debate in the industry” is whether active-shutter or passive TVs will prevail, but “it won’t be a matter of one versus the other,” he said. Both will “well-received in the market and both are valid,” Chinnock said.

Consumers will likely split on the two types depending on cost, ergonomics and convenience, Chinnock said. Viewers who prefer quality will gravitate to active-shutter TVs, which have a brighter picture and full resolution, he said. Passive glasses are lightweight and inexpensive but deliver only half resolution per eye, Chinnock noted. The choice may come down to a set’s number of viewers. “If only one or two people will be viewing, active shutter may be very appropriate.” People who entertain a lot and families probably will choose a passive solution because of the glasses are less expensive, he said.

Chinnock said 3G and 4G mobile networks will be a significant part of the 3D chain. “Smartphones and tablets are going to become more important in delivering 3D content -- to bigger screens -- and will be popular sources of user-generated content,” he said.

The amount of professionally produced 3D programming is picking up, Chinnock said. On the theatrical side, roughly 100 3D movies are in production, he said. Animated film producers “are very committed to doing almost everything in 3D going forward,” Chinnock said, citing the full control that production teams have over the parameters when making animated movies. He also spoke of a “return to sanity” after a “herd and gold-rush mentality” in Hollywood to do everything in 3D after Avatar 3D’s success. “Some poor choices were made,” Chinnock said, but “the pendulum is starting to swing back to more sanity, where not every movie has to be in 3D."

In theaters, consumers continue to show that they'll pay a premium for 3D, Chinnock said. Conversion from film to digital projection is well under way, with 135,000 screens worldwide, and more than 24,000 have been converted to digital 3D. In the U.S. more than 8,000 of the 40,000 movie screens total have been converted to digital 3D, he said. “We still have a long way to go, and it will take decades to get to 100 percent,” Chinnock said. China is leading 3D cinema growth abroad, he said.

Cost will remain an issue for movie makers wanting to create and master in 3D, Chinnock said. For the most part, content creators have used separate crews for 3D and 2D productions, and that’s “quite costly.” He said the same kind of overlap occurred in the transition from standard definition to HD, but the style differences between 2D and 3D shooting could make it difficult to merge the two crews. ESPN is “trying to figure that out,” he said.

The most important element of the 3D picture is content, Chinnock said. He cited new 3D channels that have come on line -- including Comcast’s Xfinity channel, which launched last month -- the growing number of 3D video-on-demand channels and “nontraditional” methods of cloud-based content. “The barrier to entry for all these new platforms is quite low, so you're going to see a lot of innovation going forward,” he said.

Forty 3D Blu-ray titles were available last year and the number will jump to 100 this year and more than 200 in 2012, Chinnock said. Console game titles will grow from 16 last year to 60 this year and more than 100 in 2012, he said. There will be 10 dedicated 3D TV channels in 2011, up from one last year, and 25 are forecast for next year, Chinnock said. 3D sports programming is on a healthy climb, he said, although the amount of converted legacy content is “fair to poor.” Both will become more important as dedicated 3D channels become “hungry for content,” he said.

The hardware options for 3D playback are expanding, too, including with Nintendo’s upcoming launch of the 3DS. Insight Media say there are 15 consumer 3D cameras and camcorders on the market, 10 3D personal media players, 10 3D picture frames and 15 3D laptops. Half a dozen 3D tablets are due by June, and all the categories will expand, Chinnock said.