Samsung Sees U.S. 3D TV Sales of 4 Million Sets This Year

SEATTLE -- U.S sales of 3D TV sales will hit 4 million sets this year, much higher than its late-2009 estimates of just more than 1 million sets, the company said Wednesday at the IMS TV 3.0 seminar at the Society for Information Display conference. The impending release of Blu-ray 3D movies and the debut of dedicated 3D channels like ESPN 3D is spurring Samsung to upgrade its forecast, said John Revie, senior vice president of product marketing for home entertainment.

Some of Samsung’s competitors have put their forecasts at 1-2 million units, but Samsung has maintained an aggressive stance since late last year, Revie said. Samsung has had “pockets of out of stocks” in some 3D TV screen sizes and has experienced strong demand for 55-inch sets, Revie told us. Samsung also only recently began shipping its 8000 series of 3D TVs and will soon deliver the top-end 9000 series models. Samsung sees the industry selling 10 million Blu-ray 3D players next year in the U.S. and 15 million in 2012, and that’s also the reason for the company’s bullish outlook, Revie said. Samsung thinks U.S. 3D TV sales will hit 12 million units in 2012, Revie said.

At SID, DisplaySearch also raised its forecast for U.S. 3D set sales this year, but only by 200,000 units, to 1.7 million. CEA’s projection is for the industry to sell just under 1.2 million 3D sets in the U.S. this year, while Jim Sanduski, Panasonic senior vice president of sales, said his company thinks the industry will sell 1.5-2 million sets. Sony hasn’t given a breakdown of U.S. sales, but its top executives have forecast that the industry would sell 100 million 3D sets globally in the next three years. Samsung’s forecast is “too high,” said Sanduski, a former Samsung executive. “For sets priced $2,000 and up, I just don’t see it. Because 3D is a relatively modest premium, consumers are willing to pay it so they are future-proofed."

Retailers speculated that Samsung’s more-aggressive estimate could foretell its plans to field lower-priced 720p 3D plasma TVs later this year, but Revie declined to comment. The smallest 3D TV introduced thus far is a 40-inch Sony model and the sub-40-inch category accounts for 40 percent of U.S. TV unit sales overall. The 3D TVs introduced so far generally command a $200-$300 premium over sets without the 3D feature.

Plasma-partial Panasonic thinks plasma may take a larger share of 3D TV sales than LCD because of its faster frame rate and because it costs less to add 3D to plasma panels, Sanduski said. Panasonic has increased the brightness of its plasma panels and boosted the response time, Sanduski said. Panasonic has shipped 50- and 54-inch plasma 3D TVs and will deliver 58- and 65-inch sets in the next two weeks, Sanduski said. Manufacturers have rolled out kiosks to demonstrate 3D TVs but concede that more work educating consumers and retailers needs to be done. One common problem with retail demos has been the diminutive effect of store lighting on 3D depth, Revie said. “We're learning as we go,” he said.